供需叠加股债跷跷板，期债中期震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to oscillate in the medium term due to the combination of supply - demand factors and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Economic recovery in September is a long - term negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market. The operation of the bond market is likely to face increased difficulty [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the accelerated pace of fiscal bond issuance and the tight balance of liquidity have a bearish impact on the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market into a continuous downward trend, but this logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, increasing the difficulty of market operation [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The second re - issuance of the fourth tranche of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has completed the tendering, with the overall issuance scale reaching 114.8 billion yuan and the issuance progress at 88.3% [10]. - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [10]. - Affected by the high base and food prices, China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month, down 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the increase has expanded for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [14]. - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars were up 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports were up 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14]. - The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tendering, and multi - price winning bids, with the operation time and scale determined according to liquidity management needs [13]. - Market expectations for the restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations are gradually rising [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity generally continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. The GDP in the second quarter was up 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations. The economic data in August shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and if counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long term [15]. 3.2 Policy Front - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The social financing stock reached 43.126 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap in August indicates strengthened economic activities [17]. 3.3 Capital Front - Since July 25, DR007 has been declining, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases suddenly [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Front - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this year and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [21]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital front, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing the supply and putting pressure on the liquidity of the inter - bank market. The tight balance of liquidity has increased the bearish factors for the bond market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, whether the risk appetite will continue to increase and whether the stock - bond seesaw will be bearish for the bond market need to be continuously observed. The combination of the stock - bond seesaw logic and loose liquidity may increase the difficulty of bond market operation [28].