纸浆周报：纸浆底部区间显现，暂无利多驱动-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotations showed a $20/ton increase in the price of broadleaf pulp Star, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased [3]. - Demand: Bearish. Currently, there has been no significant increase in the production and price of wood pulp paper. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to a reduction in pulp inventory, and overall demand remains weak [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2112,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons or 2.4%. Pulp port inventory remains at a high level [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to above - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - Investment View: Wait and see. Although pulp futures have reached an absolute low, there is no upward driving force [3]. - Trading Strategy: Not provided. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory still reflects that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. After the delivery of the 09 contract, there was no cancellation of warehouse receipts, and there was no short - term bullish driving force [6]. - Spot Market: The price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the price of softwood pulp remained stable. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5620 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - Foreign Quotations: In September, the price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco's September quotation for softwood pulp Silver Star was $700/ton, and the quotation for broadleaf pulp Star was $540/ton, up $20/ton [16]. - Position: The total position of pulp futures decreased. As of September 19, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 33,869 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. The position of the main contract was 166,419 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.36% [18] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total import volume of pulp was 2.877 million tons, a decrease of 5.08% compared with the previous period. The import volume of softwood pulp was 646,000 tons, a decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a decrease of 5.85% [4]. - Inventory: Pulp port inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. As of September 18, 2025, China's port pulp inventory was 2.112 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4%. Overseas pulp mill inventory also increased, with the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at 47 days at the end of July [3][38]. - Downstream Demand: - Price: As of September 19, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4800 yuan/ton, down 3.03% month - on - month; the price of coated paper was 4980 yuan/ton, down 3.3% month - on - month; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3969 yuan/ton, up 0.1% month - on - month [42]. - Production Volume: In August 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the production volume of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the production volume of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the production volume of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4% [48]. - Inventory: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.23%; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - Basis: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle was - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - Spread: As of September 19, 2025, the 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 298 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - Import Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 9.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [88]