瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU has set a goal of achieving at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030 through the "Net - Zero Industry Act" (NZIA) and the "EU Solar Charter". The short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy - consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds. The demand side shows that silicon wafer prices have risen slightly, but downstream customers are hesitant. The overall photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with large terminal transaction pressure. It is expected that prices will weaken, suppressing the demand for polysilicon. Overall, supply remains flat and demand weakens. Polysilicon is under fundamental sentiment pressure, and the market is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon declined due to fundamental sentiment, with a bearish technical signal and short - term decline pressure. The operating suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots. The spread between November and December for polysilicon is - 2,590 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 1,355 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is - 50 yuan/ton, up 555 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, up 0.09 dollars. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 dollars/kg, up 0.14 dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.62 dollars/ton, down 0.25 dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,6382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 dollars/unit, down 0.02 dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The EU has introduced the "Net - Zero Industry Act" (NZIA) and the "EU Solar Charter" to achieve a goal of at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030. Multiple polysilicon - related events have been held, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and reviewing past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing storage policies and production and sales restrictions, and the National Standardization Administration soliciting opinions on 3 mandatory national standards, which will promote the implementation of storage and raise the access threshold [2]