粕类周报：区间震荡，关注中美政策-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation". The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit has worsened. Due to the expected support of the comprehensive import cost of the US market and the premium, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. Later, focus on the changes in Sino - US policies [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple factors affect the supply, demand, inventory, etc. of the粕类 market. Supply - related factors show that the US soybean yield may decline, the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be loose, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China may shrink, and Australian rapeseed imports are expected to supplement the supply. Demand - related factors indicate that short - term feed demand is supported, but long - term demand may be affected. Inventory - related factors show that soybean inventory is at a high level, and rapeseed inventory is at a low level. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate has dropped to 63%, and may continue to decline. Domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing in October, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but Australian rapeseed imports may supplement the supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - Demand: In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policies may affect long - term pig supply. The high cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand, and the peak season of aquaculture supports rapeseed meal demand. The downstream spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, while that of rapeseed meal is cautious [5]. - Inventory: The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are increasing. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is continuously decreasing but still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - Basis/Spread: It is bearish, with the soybean meal basis being low [5]. - Profit: The outlook for soybean meal is bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - Valuation: It is neutral, with the futures prices of soybean and rapeseed meal currently at a neutral valuation position [5]. - Macro and Policy: It is bullish. The leaders of China and the US had a phone call last Friday, but there was no substantial progress in agricultural trade negotiations. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly held a meeting on the pig industry, emphasizing the tasks of controlling secondary fattening, weight, and reducing pig production capacity [5]. - Investment View: The market is expected to oscillate. Due to the deterioration of the domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit, the futures price is expected to be supported by the comprehensive import cost, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. Later, focus on Sino - US policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, expect oscillation; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products - Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [35][41]. - Production and Yield: The sowing rate and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans are presented, and the US soybean domestic crushing profit has increased [50][54]. - Crushing and Export: The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are provided. The US soybean export sales situation includes export net sales, cumulative export sales, and sales to China [61][64]. - Import and Cost: The import cost of soybeans includes CNF premium and import soybean futures gross profit. The price and crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are also presented [71][74]. - Inventory and Trading Volume: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills is rising. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal is presented. The trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [80][102][109]. - Livestock and Poultry Farming: The profit, price, weight, and inventory of pig, chicken, and egg - laying chicken farming are presented, which affect the demand for meal products [119][123][127][131].