Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/9/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Relevant Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the A - share major indices closed up collectively. The three major indices fluctuated widely, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Most industry sectors fell, with the social services sector leading the decline and the electronics sector strengthening significantly [2] - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The RMB weakened slightly recently due to this news. Domestically, in August, the growth rates of social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest level since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness [2] - In the context of the low net interest margin of banks, the unchanged LPR quotation is in line with market expectations. Overall, the economic data in August was still under pressure, with real estate dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy pressuring social retail. However, the previously announced financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. Since financial data has a certain leading effect, it is expected to be reflected in subsequent economic data [2] - Although Powell's hawkish remarks pressured the RMB in the short term, the dot - plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. The subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, providing room for domestic policy easing. Stock indices still have long - term upward potential. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4484.0, up 13.6; the IC main contract (2512) was at 7013.2, up 14.2; the IM main contract (2512) was at 7230.2, up 28.0 [2] - Futures Spreads: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. all increased. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1583.8, up 10.0 [2] - Futures Term Structure: The differences between the current - season, next - season, and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends. For example, IF current - season - current - month was - 22.4, up 0.2; IC current - season - current - month was - 130.2, down 9.2 [2] - Futures Positions: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 25,689.00, up 1742.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 43,049.00, down 119.0 [2] Spot Market - Spot Index Prices: The prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4522.61, up 20.7; the CSI 500 was at 7,225.1, up 54.8 [2] - Futures - Spot Basis: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.6, down 1.1; the IC main contract basis was - 211.9, down 25.6 [2] Market Sentiment - Trading Volume and Balance: The A - share trading volume was 21,424.63 billion yuan, down 2069.50 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 23,981.85 billion yuan, down 42.81 billion yuan; the north - bound trading volume was 3263.94 billion yuan, down 453.97 billion yuan [2] - Other Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks was 40.08%, up 4.90%; the Shibor was 1.427%, down 0.034%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2510) was 91.40, up 4.00; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 20.86%, down 0.31% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares was 5.30, up 1.30; the technical aspect was 4.00, up 0.50; the capital aspect was 6.70, up 2.30 [2] Key Data to Follow - September 23, 15:15 - 16:30: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values; 21:45: US September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [3] - September 26, 20:30: US August personal expenditure/income, PCE, core PCE [3] - September 27, 9:30: China's August industrial enterprise profits of large - scale industries [3]
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250922