Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 08:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply glut of industrial silicon remains unchanged, and the total demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today, the price of industrial silicon opened high and closed low, and the RSI indicator was overbought, with a short - term need to pull back, but the decline space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the position of the main contract was 285,490 lots, a decrease of 25,607 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 54,753 lots, an increase of 1,771 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 49,874 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The closing price of the December contract was - 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts was - 390 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton. The average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons. The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg. The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.12%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU has introduced the Net - Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the EU Solar Charter to achieve a target of at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030 [2]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: This Thursday, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly fluctuated upwards compared with last Friday. The current operating rate was 33.12%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points. There were production cut expectations in the southwest region, and some enterprises had put production cuts on the agenda. Most manufacturers in the southwest said they would operate until the end of October and had no plans to resume production thereafter. The northwest region had an electricity price advantage, and the factory operation was stable. In the Yili region, the operation was relatively optimistic, and large factories had expectations of resuming production. Although the operating rate decreased, the overall supply glut situation had not improved [2]. - Demand Side: - Organic Silicon: The organic silicon market declined, profits decreased, and the expectation of production increase in the organic silicon industry declined, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. - Polysilicon: The inventory of the polysilicon industry increased, the operating rate increased, and the demand for industrial silicon increased. Polysilicon enterprises raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work increased. However, the price increase in the downstream link was limited, and in the long run, the demand in the photovoltaic industry was expected to shrink, which might limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. - Aluminum Alloy: The overall inventory continued to rise significantly, the price remained flat, the operation of the aluminum alloy industry was stable, but the demand performance was average, and the pull on industrial silicon was limited [2].