Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar production in Brazil is accelerating, with an 18.21% year - on - year increase in sugar production in the second half of August 2025. In China, sugar imports in August 2025 increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5452 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main contract position is 456,830 lots, up 6,523 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 10,315, down 49; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,201 lots, down 1,925 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,433 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,820 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), 5,800 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 5,900 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, an increase of 1%. The monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.9%, an increase of 0.32%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.91%, an increase of 0.33%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.32%, an increase of 0.82%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.43%, an increase of 0.16% [2]. Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots. As of the week of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, an increase of 1 from the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, an increase of 98,700 tons from the previous week. In the second half of August 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%; sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons or 12.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2].