Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 08:55Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The market situation of oversupply persists, causing the market price to be under pressure and run weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live hog futures [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 12,795 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 94,045 lots, down 2,706 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -24,283 lots, up 1,521 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 12,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main basis of live hogs is 5 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 42.447 million heads, up 716,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, down 1,000 heads [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is -0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,358.43 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 893.59, down 4.44. The monthly output of feed is 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is -199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.28 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3.166 million heads, up 160,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the daily national live hog出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 290,124 heads, up 6.38% from Friday. In the short term, the supply side has pressure, and the breeding side is actively selling. The demand side is gradually warming up, but the overall growth is limited [2].