Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 08:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,003 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [3]. - The price difference between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 100,923 lots, up 4,528 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 72 lots, up 960 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 47,289 tons, down 2,086 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 2,375 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.72 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars [3]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, down 0.19 tons [3]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 kilotons, up 1.3 kilotons [3]. - The global lead ore output is 395.9 kilotons, up 15.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,137.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 49,680 units, up 1,925 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries is 2,125.6 points, down 12.42 points; the monthly automobile output is 251 tons, down 29.86 tons [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate. To avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in the US Congress called for an immediate meeting with Trump [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more interest rate cuts this year are appropriate [3]. - The Chief Justice of the United States asked Federal Reserve Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [3]. - US senators are seeking to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning the "shadow fleet" [3]. - The European Commission has passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions are in the stage of centralized maintenance. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to decline and is mostly sold in advance. The output of primary lead continues to decline [3][4]. - For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in the recycling efficiency of waste batteries, the release of production capacity has slowed down. In the short term, the operation rate remains low, mainly to ensure long - term orders. The low inventory of waste batteries in the market will continue to restrict the output of recycled lead [4]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in demand for lead in the main consumption areas. The energy storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend. However, the spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and downstream enterprises are still mostly on the sidelines. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally and some battery factories have production increase plans, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [4]. - In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, as well as the number of warehouse receipts. The current inventory data shows that demand effectively drives inventory reduction [4].