市场情绪趋稳，钢矿高位震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Ribbed Bars: The main futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 0.85%. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of ribbed bars have improved marginally. However, the downstream market has not improved, and concerns about demand remain. The improvement strength needs to be tracked. The relative positive factor is the rising cost. With the game of multiple and short factors, the steel price is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.54%. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, the inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factors are the rising cost and production limit disturbances. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be weak and fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - Iron Ore: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.37%. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level ore price to fluctuate upward. However, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is also rising. The fundamentals have not been substantially improved. Coupled with the relatively high valuation, the pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and precautions should be taken against the intensification of industrial contradictions [4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Air - Conditioner Production Scheduling: In October 2025, the production scheduling of air - conditioners continued to decline. The total retail volume of air - conditioners in August increased by 1.1% year - on - year, but the growth rate has decreased significantly. In the first two weeks of September, the online and offline sales volumes decreased by 35.5% and 30% respectively. In terms of production, the domestic sales production scheduling in October was 5.61 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and the export production scheduling was 6.34 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [6]. - New Contracts of Construction Central Enterprises: As of September 22, 2025, five construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in the first eight months of 2025, with a total of 4.713239 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first with a new contract amount of 2.8799 trillion yuan in the first eight months. In the construction business, the new contract amount in the first eight months was 2.6644 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, of which the infrastructure business was 0.8954 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume in the first eight months was 0.2155 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [7]. - Steel Industry Plan: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)". The overall goal is to achieve an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 to 2026, with the economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, the market supply - demand becoming more balanced, the industrial structure being more optimized, the effective supply capacity continuously increasing, and the levels of green - low - carbon and digital development being significantly improved [8]. Spot Market - The report provides the spot prices of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, Tangshan billets, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and other products, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. Futures Market - Ribbed Bars: The closing price of the active contract was 3,185 yuan, with a rise of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,652,529 lots, an increase of 401,938 lots, and the open interest was 1,861,142 lots, a decrease of 109,368 lots [11]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The closing price of the active contract was 3,380 yuan, with a rise of 0.54%. The trading volume was 548,824 lots, an increase of 89,152 lots, and the open interest was 1,382,769 lots, a decrease of 30,384 lots [11]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the active contract was 808.5 yuan, with a rise of 0.37%. The trading volume was 409,502 lots, an increase of 29,691 lots, and the open interest was 562,024 lots, a decrease of 12,497 lots [11]. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides charts of ribbed bar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses) [13][14][16]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts of iron ore port inventory (seasonal, total inventory), inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore are presented [18][22][24]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are included [26][28][32]. 后市研判 - Ribbed Bars: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 54,800 tons, continuing the downward trend. The demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 119,600 tons. However, the demand improvement needs to be tracked. The steel price is expected to be stable and fluctuating [37]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 13,500 tons, and the demand has weakened. The demand resilience is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuating [37]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise, but the demand is expected to weaken. The supply is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic [38].