长江期货聚烯烃周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The LL main contract is expected to oscillate between 7200 - 7500, and the PP main contract between 6900 - 7200, with the LP spread expected to widen [5]. - The plastics market has alleviated supply - demand contradictions and has strong bottom support [7]. - The PP market faces significant long - term pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Market - Market Changes: On September 19, the L main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract at 6914 yuan/ton, with an LP spread of 255 yuan/ton. LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices showed slight declines. LLDPE South China basis and PP basis both contracted, while their 9 - 1 month spreads widened [5]. - Fundamental Changes - Supply: China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points, with a weekly output of 63.10 tons, up 2.97%. The PP petrochemical enterprise start - up rate was 74.90%, down 1.93 percentage points. PP pellet output decreased by 2.51% weekly, while PP powder output increased by 2.44% [5]. - Demand: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 26.75%, up 2.63%. The average downstream start - up rate was 51.45%, up 0.59 [5]. - Inventory: Plastic enterprise social inventory was 54.66 tons, down 1.37 tons, or 2.45%. Polypropylene domestic inventory was 55.06 tons, down 4.26% [5]. 3.2 Plastics Market - Weekly Market Review: On September 19, the plastics main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, with LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices showing slight declines. LLDPE South China basis contracted, and the 9 - 1 month spread widened [8]. - Key Data Tracking - Month - Spread: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 month spreads of plastics had different changes on September 19 compared to September 12 [16]. - Spot Price: Different regions and varieties of plastics had different price changes on September 19 [17][18]. - Cost: WTI crude oil was at 62.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.24 dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil was at 66.05 dollars/barrel, down 0.83 dollars/barrel. Anthracite in the Yangtze River port was priced at 1060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [20]. - Profit: Oil - based PE profit was - 312 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, and coal - based PE profit was 868 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton [24]. - Supply: China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points, with a weekly output of 63.10 tons, up 2.97%. The maintenance loss was 12.52 tons, down 2.10 tons [29]. - 2025 Production Plan: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity coming on - stream in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 613 [31]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [32]. - Demand: The domestic agricultural film, PE packaging film, and PE pipe start - up rates all increased [33]. - Downstream Production Ratio: The linear film production ratio was the highest at 31.9%, and the low - pressure pipe ratio deviated significantly from the annual average [37]. - Inventory: Plastic enterprise social inventory was 54.66 tons, down 1.37 tons, or 2.45% [39]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 19, the polyethylene warehouse receipt quantity was 12736 lots, up 211 lots [42]. 3.3 PP Market - Weekly Market Review: On September 19, the PP main contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [45]. - Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: Different PP products and related products had different price changes on September 19 [48][49]. - Basis: On September 19, the PP spot price was 7020 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The PP basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [51]. - Month - Spread: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 month spreads of PP had different changes on September 19 compared to September 12 [60]. - Cost: WTI crude oil was at 62.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.24 dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil was at 66.05 dollars/barrel, down 0.83 dollars/barrel. Anthracite in the Yangtze River port was priced at 1060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [62]. - Profit: Oil - based PP profit was - 435.85 yuan/ton, down 113.68 yuan/ton, and coal - based PP profit was 444.40 yuan/ton, down 45.80 yuan/ton [66]. - Supply: China's PP petrochemical enterprise start - up rate was 74.90%, down 1.93 percentage points. PP pellet output was 76.70 tons, down 2.51% weekly, and PP powder output was 6.14 tons, up 2.44% [69]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [72]. - Demand: The average downstream start - up rate was 51.45%, up 0.59. The plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipe start - up rates had different changes [74]. - Import - Export Profit: The PP import profit was - 480.06 dollars/ton, up 20.80 dollars/ton, and the export profit was - 3.69 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars/ton [81]. - Inventory: Polypropylene domestic inventory was 55.06 tons, down 4.26%. The two - oil inventory increased by 1.63%, the trader inventory decreased by 7.06%, and the port inventory increased by 4.92% [84]. - Warehouse Receipts: On September 19, the PP warehouse receipt quantity was 13499 lots, down 207 lots [91].