国贸期货油脂周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation. The overall view is that the prices of oils and fats will rise in the medium and long term. Rapeseed oil may start to rise first, and soybean and palm oils should be traded with the idea of buying on dips [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: Palm oil is bullish, while soybean and rapeseed oils are neutral. The floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and the deterioration of high - frequency production data bring positive drivers from the origin. Sino - US diplomatic negotiations may affect the trade flow of US soybeans, and the new - crop production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase [5]. - Demand: Neutral to bearish. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before, and there are recent bearish disturbances. The biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the trading volume of oils and fats in the domestic peak season is lower than the same period [5]. - Inventory: Neutral to bearish. The total inventory of domestic oils and fats continued to accumulate last week, which is a bearish deviation from the previous expectation of "peak inventory and then de - stocking". Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking with a strengthening basis, while soybean and palm oils are accumulating inventory with a weakening basis [5]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks. Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and there is still uncertainty about the US biodiesel RVO [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Investment View: Maintain a long - term bullish view on oils and fats, with rapeseed oil leading the rise, and a strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy on dips. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, go long on oils and short on meals in the far - month contracts, and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of rapeseed oil [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts and varieties, such as P1 - 5 spread, Y1 - 5 spread, OI1 - 5 spread, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][15]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals of Oils and Fats - Southeast Asia: Analyzes the weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, and the monthly supply - and - demand situation of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia, covering production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory [18][30][36]. - India: Shows India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international price difference between soybean and palm oils [43]. - China: Analyzes China's palm oil import profit, supply, and demand, including import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit. It also covers the situation of US soybeans (including weather, growth rate, export), Brazilian soybeans (export volume), and the supply - and - demand situation of rapeseed and rapeseed oil (including weather, export, domestic arrival, production, and inventory) [49][61][101].