Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply, demand, inventory, and valuation factors are all rated as neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly decrease of 3 ships. The total shipment was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were sent to China with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes compared to August 2025 [3] - Demand: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [3] - Inventory: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week and a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase and a 3.35% week - on - week increase [3] - Valuation: The current delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³. The receiving value of the mainstream specifications is higher than the spot price, and the current valuation is neutral [3] - Investment View and Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Log futures contracts oscillated last week. The current log fundamentals are stable, New Zealand's shipments have not increased significantly, and the daily average outbound volume remains at 60,000 m³. The log valuation is moderately high, but short - selling is not cost - effective [7] - Futures Position: As of September 19, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 20,750 lots, a 6.1% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 13,421 lots, a 13.1% decrease [10] - Spot Price: As of September 19, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. Shandong's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/750/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/890 yuan/m³. Jiangsu's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/860 yuan/m³ [14] PART THREE: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% monthly decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. In July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a 12.87% monthly decrease and a 3.35% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a 1.24% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a 13.04% monthly decrease and a 5.76% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a 0.25% year - on - year increase [18] - Shipment and Arrival: From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, a 50% week - on - week decrease. The total arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 96,000 cubic meters, accounting for 45% and a 62% week - on - week decrease. In Jiangsu, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 116,000 cubic meters, accounting for 55% and an 11% week - on - week decrease [20] - Import Cost and Profit: As of September 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 113 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26] - Inventory: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, a 3.35% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week [28] - Outbound Volume: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [32] - Wooden Square: As of September 19, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1270 yuan/m³, with no weekly change. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, both with no weekly change [35]
原木周报（LG）：原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-22 09:11