黑色金属周报：钢材双节前存补库预期，钢价低位修复-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the double festivals, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. However, the rebound height may be limited as the supply - demand gap in September, although alleviated, remains at a high level. After the contraction of per - ton steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down. The raw material varieties show obvious differentiation, and short - term attention should be paid to cost fluctuations. Currently, the long - short game is intense, and prices remain fluctuating within the range. The rebound pressure is concerned with off - peak electricity cost, and cautious operation is recommended [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Steel Price and Output: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3260 yuan (+70), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan (+20). As of September 18, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 17,800 tons. The inventory in steel mills decreased by 11,400 tons, and the social inventory increased by 62,700 tons. The apparent demand was 8.5033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [5] - Profit: As of September 19, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3135 yuan, with a profit of about 95 yuan per ton; the cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 185 yuan per ton. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of East China rebar was about 3335 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3208 yuan. The profit of flat - rate electricity was about - 245 yuan per ton, and the profit of off - peak electricity was about - 118 yuan per ton [5] - Scrap Steel: As of September 18, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 32.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,300 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons, with an increase rate of 5.1%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.325 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons, with an increase rate of 0.9% [6] - Macro Data: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 1.7%. The pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 2.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 579 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 672 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [20] - Investment and Real Estate Data: From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.85% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 19.95% year - on - year. From January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing start - up area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [28][31] 3.2 Main Variety Basis, Main Variety Inter - Period, Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - Arbitrage Strategy: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has been falling from a high level this week [42] 3.3 Supply Analysis - Long - Process Supply: As of September 19, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points, with an increase rate of 0.19%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4700 tons, with an increase rate of 0.20% [45] - Short - Process Supply: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 32.3% (- 2.8). As of September 19, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 13 yuan (- 59) [48] - Scrap Steel Arrival, Consumption, and Inventory: The daily arrival of 255 steel mills increased, the daily consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [6] 3.4 Demand - Related Data - Building Materials Transaction: The transaction volume data of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [64][67][68] - Cement Mill Start - Up Rate: The average start - up load of cement mills has increased to a certain extent. The average start - up load of national cement mills is 44.88%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the increase rate has narrowed by 1.97 percentage points. The demand growth is still weak, and most regions have no obvious increase and are still in a fluctuating state [73] - Real Estate Sales: The high - frequency data of real estate sales in 30 cities are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [75] 3.5 Product - Specific Supply and Demand - Rebar: This week, the original sample rebar output was 2.0645 million tons (- 54,800), including 1.7972 million tons of long - process output (- 48,500) and 267,300 tons of short - process output (- 6300). The original sample rebar mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons (- 15,600), the social inventory was 4.8521 million tons (- 20,200), and the total inventory was 6.5028 million tons (- 35,800) [61][78] - Hot - Rolled Coil: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 326,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons. The apparent demand was 321,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the mill inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42,500 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 46,700 tons [81] 3.6 Other Data - Cold - Hot Price Difference: As of September 19, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (- 10) [88] - Export Situation: As of September 19, the FOB export price in China was 485 US dollars (+6), the export profit was - 5.7 US dollars (- 2), and the outbound volume of 32 domestic major ports was 2.8305 million tons (+122,200) [92]