Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-22 09:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [4]. Core Insights - In August, the average daily power generation exceeded 30 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with total industrial power generation reaching 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [9][57]. - The report highlights the continued growth of thermal power and the significant contribution of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, to the overall power generation increase [10][11]. - Global gas prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a stable supply-demand balance in the market, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [20][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In August, the total power generation was 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a daily average of 30.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 1.6% increase year-on-year [9][57]. - The breakdown of power generation types shows thermal power at 6,274 billion kilowatt-hours (up 1.7%), hydropower at 1,479 billion kilowatt-hours (down 10.1%), nuclear power at 645 billion kilowatt-hours (up 5.9%), wind power at 738 billion kilowatt-hours (up 20.2%), and solar power at 538 billion kilowatt-hours (up 15.9%) [11][58]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth of renewable energy, with wind and solar power showing significant year-on-year increases of 20.2% and 15.9%, respectively [10][11]. 2. Natural Gas - As of September 19, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.89/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.80%, while the TTF spot price in Europe remained stable at €32.00/MWh [20][21]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas production remains high, contributing to a stable supply-demand balance and low price fluctuations [23][29]. - The LNG ex-factory price in China was 4,019 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.84%, indicating a softening market due to weak domestic demand [41][44]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For hydropower, the report recommends companies like Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to stable growth and financial benefits from interest rate cuts [18]. - In the renewable energy sector, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Funi Co. are highlighted for their stable returns and high profitability [18]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated natural gas traders like New Hope Energy and Shenzhen Gas, as well as city gas companies benefiting from cost reductions [44].