Dongxing Securities·2025-09-22 09:40Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the national express service companies completed a total of 16.15 billion packages in August, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. However, the growth rate of package volume continues to decline due to the industry's anti-involution measures that suppress the practice of exchanging price for volume [2][11] - The report indicates a significant recovery in single-package revenue for Tongda system companies, with Shentong and YTO showing notable increases in revenue per package [2][26] - The anti-involution policies have effectively curbed the price competition, leading to a shift in focus towards service quality rather than just cost advantages [10][43] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In August, the total business volume of express service companies reached 16.15 billion packages, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The volume of same-city packages decreased by 0.8%, while intercity packages grew by 14.0% [2][11] - The growth rate of package volume has been gradually declining since March, influenced by a high base from the previous year and diminishing marginal returns from the price-for-volume model [2][11] 2. Package Volume Analysis - The growth rate of package volume has slowed down, with significant differentiation among listed express companies. SF Express has maintained a growth rate above 30% since April, while the Tongda system companies have seen a decline in growth rates [2][11][16] - In terms of pricing, Shentong, YTO, and Yunda saw their single-package revenue increase by 4.6%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively in August [2][26] 3. Revenue per Package - The report notes that the average single-package revenue in August slightly increased compared to July, while the year-on-year decline was 7.2%. The revenue per package for Shentong and YTO showed significant recovery, indicating a strategic shift away from low-priced packages [26][30] - Shentong's single-package revenue increased by 0.09 yuan, while YTO's increased by 0.07 yuan, suggesting a deliberate adjustment in sales strategy [2][29] 4. Structural Changes - The report indicates that the industry concentration ratio (CR8) remained stable at 86.9, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market share of the four listed companies reached 50.6%, slightly up from the previous year [36][38] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with superior service quality, such as Zhongtong and YTO, as well as Shentong, which has shown significant improvement in operational data [8][43]