Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the rubber market enters a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the market turns to a weak supply - demand fundamental [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 6.62 million tons, while general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 52.04 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a 1.53% decrease from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a decrease of 30,200 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points [10]. - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and an increase of 487,200 tons from the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China was 851,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,800 tons. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the inland methanol inventory in China was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a decrease of 94,200 tons from the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a decrease of 2.152 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% from the August average. As of September 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an increase of 18,092 contracts or 8.94% from the August average. Overall, the net long position in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while the net long position in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,530 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 830 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,287 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | 2,348 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 458.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.0 yuan/barrel | - 3.0 yuan/barrel | - 25.2 yuan/barrel | + 2.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil including rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [17][19][21]
偏空情绪压制，能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-22 09:40