瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply cost is affected by the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the premium of domestic nickel ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the spot premium has risen slightly, and domestic inventories have decreased; overseas LME inventories have increased. Technically, the price is adjusting, and both long and short positions are cautious in trading. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA60. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being and go long with a light position at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is -160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,270 US dollars/ton, down 65 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 45,068 lots, down 5,353 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -30,686 lots, down 1,397 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,900 tons, up 456 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 29,834 tons, up 2,334 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,752 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,536 tons, down 307 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -179.4 US dollars/ton, down 1.57 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,400.11 million tons, up 13.95 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 55.88 million tons, down 0.52 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]