瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 12th to 18th, styrene weekly output decreased by 2.03% to 346,800 tons, and weekly capacity utilization decreased by 1.54% to 73.44%. The downstream consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.14% to 278,300 tons. As of September 18th, the factory inventory decreased by 1.81% to 216,300 tons, and as of September 22nd, the East China port inventory increased by 17.30% to 186,500 tons, while the South China port inventory decreased by 37.61% to 13,600 tons. The non - integrated cost of styrene increased, and the profit was - 368 yuan/ton. The domestic large - scale plants are taking turns for maintenance, and this cycle may last for several months. The 800,000 - ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical will restart this week, and the 620,000 - ton plant of Zhenhai Liande plans to stop production. The output and capacity utilization may rise. The new plant's commissioning is postponed to October, and the overall supply pressure in September shows a downward trend. The load of EPS, PS, and ABS plants is expected to be slightly adjusted. The inventory is back in the destocking cycle, but the current inventory pressure is still relatively high. The OPEC+ production increase has a continuous impact, and the long - term global crude oil supply is expected to be stronger than demand, putting pressure on oil prices, but the short - term geopolitical situation is still uncertain. The EB2511 disk trend is weak, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 6,800 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures is 6,928 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; the trading volume is 253,473 lots, down 10,606 lots. The 11 - month contract closing price is 6,928 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders is 405,128 lots, and the net long position is - 33,152 lots, down 791 lots. The short position is 438,280 lots, up 20,730 lots. The futures holding volume is 379,614 lots, up 43,085 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,314 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 965 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 865 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,880 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 7,160 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 6,920 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and 7,030 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 846 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 745.5 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), US Gulf (FOB), and Rotterdam (FOB) are 722.17 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar), 250 cents/gallon (down 3 cents), and 663 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,885 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,010 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate is 73.44%, down 1.54 percentage points; the national inventory is 216,283 tons, down 3,994 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 159,000 tons, down 17,500 tons; the trade inventory is 78,000 tons, down 9,000 tons. The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 61.74% (up 0.72 percentage points), 69.8% (down 0.2 percentage points), 61.2% (down 0.7 percentage points), 34% (unchanged), and 70.43% (up 0.86 percentage points) respectively [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, styrene weekly output and capacity utilization decreased. The downstream consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased. The factory inventory decreased, the East China port inventory increased, and the South China port inventory decreased. The non - integrated cost of styrene increased, and the profit was negative. The domestic large - scale plants are under maintenance, and the 800,000 - ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical will restart this week, while the 620,000 - ton plant of Zhenhai Liande plans to stop production [2]