Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 09:46Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,130 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand seasonally recovered, driving the downstream start - up rate of PE to rise month - on - month. Last week, the production enterprise inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory pressure was not large. This week, only a new 350,000 - ton high - density device of Baolai was added, and devices such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical restarted. PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month - on - month. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton low - density device is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. The greenhouse film has entered the peak season, and agricultural film orders have continued to pick up; packaging film orders still have room for growth. With the upcoming long holiday, downstream stocking demand is released. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the medium - and long - term supply - exceeding - demand expectation of global crude oil puts some pressure on oil prices, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term geopolitical situation. The supply - demand game of LLDPE is expected to operate in the daily range of around 7,100 - 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,130, down 39; 1 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,130, down 39; 5 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,187, down 36; 9 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,229, down 21. The trading volume (daily, lots) was 210,963, an increase of 9,252; the open interest (daily, lots) was 580,839, an increase of 24,526. The 9 - 1 spread was 81, down 11. The long position volume of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) was 422,702, an increase of 18,531; the short position volume was 478,391, an increase of 16,583; the net long position volume was - 55,689, an increase of 1,948 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; the average price in East China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,318.81, down 8.1. The basis was 63.48, an increase of 19.44 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in the Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) was 64.51, down 0.29; the CFR middle price of naphtha in the Japanese region (daily, US dollars/ton) was 596.75, down 2.63. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 841, unchanged; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 846, down 5 [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) was 80.36, an increase of 2.32 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) was 51.78, an increase of 0.48; the operating rate of PE pipes (weekly, %) was 31.83, an increase of 0.16; the operating rate of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) was 26.75, an increase of 2.63 [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) was 4.93, down 1.1; the 40 - day historical volatility (daily, %) was 6.04, down 0.91. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) was 10.21, an increase of 0.16; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) was 10.2, an increase of 0.15 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 17th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 490,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%; as of September 15th, the social inventory of PE was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week - on - week to 893 yuan/ton [3].