瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing as new production capacities are released and previously overhauled capacities resume production, but the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing due to tight overseas zinc mines and expanding import losses, and the export window is approaching to open. The demand side shows a lack - luster peak season, with galvanized sheet inventory under control and the processing enterprises' operating rate stabilizing and rebounding. The recent decline in zinc prices has led to downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand, resulting in a decrease in domestic social inventory and a slight increase in spot premium. The significant decline in overseas LME inventory and the increase in spot premium support zinc prices. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,090 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 2,898.5 dollars/ton, down 14.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 240,089 lots, up 3,214 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 8,978 lots, up 3,621 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 55,054 tons, up 2,523 tons; the SHFE inventory is 99,315 tons, up 4,666 tons; the LME inventory is 47,825 tons, down 1,000 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 50.91 dollars/ton, up 26.64 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,200 tons, up 4,200 tons; the global zinc mine production is 1.0814 million tons, up 30,100 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons; the zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.35 million tons, unchanged; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.3 million tons, down 10,000 tons; the newly - started housing area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the completed housing area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12%, down 1.96%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12%, down 1.96%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.51%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.73%, down 0.03% [3] Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB officials have different views on interest rates, with some believing the current rate is appropriate and there is no need for further easing [3]