Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 09:53Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3]. - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan's production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [3]. - On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, and order recovery is relatively slow. Recently, as tin prices have fallen, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and terminal enterprises has been released, most have started restocking, the market trading atmosphere has warmed up, domestic inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 300 yuan/ton. LME inventories have decreased, but the spot premium is at a low level [3]. - Technically, with the reduction in positions and the increase in prices, the short - selling sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the 275,000 yuan/ton resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips, with a reference range of 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 272,510 yuan/ton, up 3,740 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,220 US dollars/ton, up 470 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 16,287 lots, down 3,929 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 13 lots, up 1,362 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, down 140 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,988 tons, down 909 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 6,600 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,830 yuan/ton, up 3,820 yuan; the basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 510 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 124.41 US dollars/ton, up 30.59 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,900 yuan/ton, up 2,190 yuan; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [3]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good equilibrium and no further easing is needed [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Today, there is no news. The focus is on the 275,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips, with a reference range of 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3].