山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 2.01% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.81%. The report predicts that precious metals will fluctuate upward in the short - term and step - up in the long - term [2] - Gold price trend is the anchor for silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core Logic: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are reached in batches, concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 interest - rate cuts are still expected within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure to rebound. The CRB commodity index is under pressure to rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] - Data Summary: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have shown different degrees of changes. For example, Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8.36% compared to the previous day [3] Silver - Core Logic: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6] - Data Summary: Similar to gold, various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have changed. For example, the main Comex silver contract increased by 3.00% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 16.15% compared to the previous day [7] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% compared to the previous week [9] - Other Key Data: Data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys in the US, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices, are presented with their corresponding changes [10][11][12] - Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different future meeting dates is provided [13]