宏观扰动下降，产业支撑上升：铜铝周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With macro disturbances decreasing and industrial support increasing, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. After the short - term profit - taking of long positions around the Fed's interest - rate cut, copper prices stabilized on Friday. At the industrial level, the decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 80,000 - yuan level [3][53]. - Aluminum: Similar to copper, macro disturbances are decreasing and industrial support is increasing, leading to the stabilization of aluminum prices. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to decline. As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the upcoming double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Factors - The Fed's September interest - rate cut was implemented last week, leading to a reverse market trend as the good news was realized. The US dollar index rebounded from its low, most non - ferrous metals saw a reduction in positions and price drops, and the stock index fluctuated at a high level. With the end of the September interest - rate cut, macro disturbances will gradually decrease, and the influence of the industry will increase. The approaching double festivals and the previous high - price wait - and - see attitude will increase the pre - festival stocking demand as prices fall, providing support for futures prices [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to take profits, resulting in a significant reduction in positions and price drops in Shanghai copper. LME copper also faced strong technical pressure at the annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits. Since Friday, the profit - taking has ended, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with Shanghai copper breaking through the 80,000 - yuan level and LME copper reaching the $10,000 level [3][53]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees - Copper ore processing fees have slightly rebounded from a low level [23]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [26]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices continuously declined from a high level. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, leading to a significant reduction in positions and price drops. Shanghai aluminum also reached an annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits [4][53]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Information on bauxite port inventory and alumina prices is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [41][45]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum rose last week as downstream buyers were more cautious due to high prices in September [4][53]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Information on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [47][49][52]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: After the end of the short - term profit - taking of long positions, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. The decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Attention should be paid to domestic inventory and the 80,000 - yuan technical support [3][53]. - Aluminum: As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53].