宏观点评：广义财政盼增量-20250922

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, general public budget revenue totaled CNY 14.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - General public budget expenditure for the same period reached CNY 17.93 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] - In August 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 1.24 trillion, up 2.0% year-on-year, while expenditure was CNY 1.86 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase[4] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue continues to outperform non-tax revenue, with August tax revenue growing by 3.4% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Manufacturing accounted for over 30% of total tax revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 5% in the first eight months of 2025[5] - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 226% in August, driven by increased market activity, contributing significantly to tax revenue growth[8] Fiscal Pressure and Challenges - The fiscal data for August indicates mounting pressure, with weakened consumption impacting tax revenue and a declining real estate sector exacerbating fiscal income challenges[23] - Government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a 5.8% drop in land transfer income[18] - Infrastructure spending remains weak, with related expenditures showing a significant decline of 13.2% when combined[13] Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The necessity for incremental policy measures is rising due to anticipated economic pressures and the nearing end of government bond issuance in the fourth quarter[23] - The potential for early utilization of next year's debt quota and the timing of policy financial tools will be critical in supporting economic stability[23]