大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程降息落地，流动性再平衡-20250922

Market Overview - Macro growth factors continue to rise, while inflation indicators show weakening rebound; the US economic surprise index has retreated from highs, indicating marginal weakening of economic momentum[4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has driven the Nasdaq (+2.21%) and Hang Seng Tech (+5.09%) to lead gains, while A-shares show structural divergence with the ChiNext Index (+2.34%) benefiting from tech growth, and the Shanghai Composite Index (-1.30%) experiencing significant adjustment[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Favor high-grade credit bonds with flexible duration adjustments; focus on bank and insurance allocation trends[5] - Overseas equities: US economic data has exceeded expectations, suggesting limited short-term dollar rebound potential; recommend focusing on interest rate-sensitive sectors[5] - Gold: Precious metals are core allocations during the rate cut cycle; suggest increasing exposure to gold/silver due to dual drivers of rate cuts and safe-haven demand[5] - A-shares: Liquidity remains a key driver for the market; current volume supports structural bull trends, but valuation and earnings matching have declined, necessitating a balanced approach between tech leaders and low-priced blue chips[5] Risk Factors - Policy adjustment risks; market volatility risks; geopolitical shocks; economic data validation risks; liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - August manufacturing PMI rose 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, remaining in contraction territory for five consecutive months, but showing improvement; production index at 50.8% indicates expansion for four months[43] - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI's decline narrowed to -2.9%, suggesting potential improvement in corporate profit expectations if the trend continues[52] Market Sentiment - Average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 2.495 trillion yuan, up 8.5% week-on-week, indicating improved market activity; however, caution is advised regarding overheating risks[59] - The leverage ratio in the bond market has decreased, reflecting a marginal decline in market financing activity[74]