周报：降息预期叠加成本支撑，钢价低位反弹-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the current warm macro - atmosphere, relatively low - valued steel prices, high iron - water production, and the short - term difficulty in forming obvious negative feedback pressure, steel prices are expected to fluctuate but have obvious support and a small rebound space [3]. - The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has a phased increase, and the arrival volume is relatively lagging and shows a short - term decline. The demand for iron ore is supported by high - level iron - water production. Iron ore is expected to be firm in the short term, but the room for further upward movement is relatively limited [4]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. With the high - level iron - water production and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectation, as well as the approaching Fed rate - cut window, coking coal and coke are expected to have obvious low - level support and phased rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products slowed down slightly. The production and demand of rebar decreased, and the increase in total inventory narrowed, but the social inventory still increased significantly, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand and cautious market transactions. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased, with an improved fundamental situation. During the domestic policy vacuum period, steel prices showed a low - level weak adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: The national weekly rebar production was 211.93 million tons (down 3.09% month - on - month and up 12.78% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 325.14 million tons (up 3.47% month - on - month and up 7.60% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [16][18]. - Profit: Rebar profit was - 14 yuan/ton (down 133% week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 46 yuan/ton (up 35.29% week - on - week and up 173 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption was 198.07 million tons (down 1.98% month - on - month and down 10.94% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 326.16 million tons (up 6.81% month - on - month and up 3.23% year - on - year) [37]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory was 653.86 million tons (up 2.17% month - on - month and up 32.46% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 373.32 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and down 13.43% year - on - year) [41][46]. - Downstream: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land continued to shrink month - on - month. In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The iron ore price index was 105.59 (up 1.22% month - on - month and up 14.85% year - on - year). The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2850.8 million tons (up 25.75% month - on - month and down 1.78% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons (down 3.50% month - on - month and up 9.60% year - on - year) [59]. - Demand: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 317.78 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 4.97% year - on - year) [64]. - Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13849.47 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 9.55% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 million tons (up 0.59% month - on - month and down 1.07% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.71% (up 9.14% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.44 million tons (down 1.23% month - on - month and up 75.35% year - on - year) [76]. - Demand: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year) [85]. - Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 751.75 million tons (down 3.70% month - on - month and up 7.58% year - on - year), and the coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.91 million tons (up 7.86% month - on - month and up 0.99% year - on - year) [91][97]. - Spot Price: Coke started the second round of price cuts, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [98]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted from a high level, and the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils widened. The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke continued to contract, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [105][111].