甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest contradiction in the methanol market lies in the port. Continuous high shipments from Iran make the contradiction in the 01 contract difficult to resolve, and the 15 contract has shown a reverse spread. The price in the inland may peak in September. It is recommended to reduce long positions and continue to hold short put options [6] 3. Summaries by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, it is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, it is also 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management (Long Spot): When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a 25% hedge, sell MA2601 futures at 2250 - 2350. Also, buy 50% MA2601P2250 put options and sell 50% MA2601C2350 call options [3] - Inventory Management (Short Spot): When the procurement inventory is low and want to purchase according to orders, buy 50% MA2601 futures at 2450 - 2550. Sell 75% MA2601P2300 put options to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction - At the beginning of the week, the inland and the port were segmented. The port had continuous reverse flow, and after the inland weakened, the futures price declined. As of this week, Iran's shipment was 700,000 tons, and the September shipment is expected to be over 900,000 tons. The inland has a small inventory, some devices have recovered, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped procurement [6] Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at the port is expected to be scattered, and the port's methanol inventory is expected to increase [7]