Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. The short - term futures prices are likely to continue the oscillatory trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor during the peak season, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping space based on order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to pre - determine the shipping space booking cost. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 846 lots to 26004 lots, short positions increased by 334 lots to 27322 lots, and trading volume increased by 15727 lots to 51358 lots (bilateral). After the futures prices, especially the prices of the main contract, had basically maintained a large decline in the previous two weeks and reached a short - term low, they rebounded at the low level today as the current spot cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on the European line were basically stable. As it is the last week before the holiday, the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations also need to be monitored this week [3]. 利多解读 - The Israeli military stated that after about two weeks of intensive preparation, the troops of the 36th Division have started to enter Gaza City as part of the "Chariot of Gideon 2" operation to expand the scope of operations. In addition, the Israeli military also said that in recent days, under the leadership of the divisional firepower command post, the Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes on dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip to separate the combat areas and allow ground troops to enter the area [4]. 利空解读 - Evergreen and ONE continued to lower the current spot cabin quotes on the European line for early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different degrees of decline for each contract [5]. Price and Spread - The closing prices and price changes of each EC contract on September 22, 2025 are as follows: EC2510 closed at 1093.7 points, with a daily increase of 4.11% and a weekly decrease of 5.97%; EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.47% and a weekly decrease of 0.14%; EC2602 closed at 1573.6 points, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 3.74%; EC2604 closed at 1275.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.94% and a weekly increase of 1.68%; EC2606 closed at 1454.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 1.58%; EC2608 closed at 1609.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6]. Spot Cabin Quotes - According to the data of the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on the day, on October 6, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $840, and the total quote for 40GP was $1400, both remaining the same as the previous period. On October 2, for Evergreen Marine's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $950, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1500, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period. In early October, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $915, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP remained the same as the previous period at $1435 [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest values, previous values, price changes, and percentage changes of various global freight rate indexes are as follows: SCFIS for the European line decreased by 12.87% to 1254.92 points; SCFIS for the US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI for the European line decreased by 8.84% to $1052 per TEU; SCFI for the US - West line decreased by 30.97% to $1636 per FEU; XSI for the European line decreased by 0.40% to $1983 per FEU; XSI for the US - West line decreased by 4.0% to $2159 per FEU [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times and their daily changes at major global ports on September 21, 2025 are as follows: Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days; Shanghai Port decreased by 0.086 days to 1.596 days; Yantian Port increased by 0.072 days to 0.951 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.106 days to 0.548 days; Jakarta Port increased by 0.625 days to 2.114 days; Long Beach Port increased by 0.392 days to 2.048 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.280 days to 1.083 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - The speeds and their daily changes of different container ship types on September 21, 2025 are as follows: for ships with a capacity of over 8000, the speed decreased by 0.148 knots to 15.516 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 3000, the speed increased by 0.143 knots to 14.827 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 1000, the speed decreased by 0.133 knots to 13.098 knots. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage decreased by 10 to 15 ships [24].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-22 10:57