A股四季度策略展望：慢牛进行时

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in the fourth quarter, with increased volatility, following a strong performance in the third quarter led by technology stocks [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a structural recovery in earnings and continued credit repair, supported by a resilient export environment and steady growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][4][19] - Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a balanced style favoring both large and small-cap stocks [4][5] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a bull market with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading gains, driven by liquidity easing and improved risk appetite [10][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a low-level recovery in earnings, with potential inflows from foreign investment and new funds, although IPOs and sell-offs may increase [4][5] - The overall market valuation is currently neutral to high, with supportive policies likely to sustain risk appetite [4] Industry Allocation - Technology remains the main focus for investment in the fourth quarter, with significant opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, military industry, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [5][19] - The market style is expected to be balanced, with large-cap and small-cap stocks performing well during periods of structural recovery in earnings and credit [5][54]