Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market continues to rebound, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The demand expectation is pessimistic, which restricts the upward space [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation. The supply has declined from the high level, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal. The inventory has increased, and there is still a pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The coke price is relatively firm, with a small premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] - The coking coal price is relatively firm, with a premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] - The silicon manganese price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] - The ferrosilicon price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand has recovered, production has declined, and inventory has slightly decreased. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production has increased, and inventory has re - accumulated. The hot - metal production remains high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has eased, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption [2] - The real - estate investment decline has widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have continued to slow down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the steel export remains high [2] - The trading floor continues to rebound under the support of "anti - involution" and the Fed's interest - rate cut, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space, and the rhythm is still volatile [2] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment has declined from the high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. The shipment from Australia and that to China has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year [3] - The steel mills' willingness to actively cut production is still insufficient. The short - term high - level hot metal continues to support the iron - ore demand. The steel mills' imported - ore inventory has increased significantly, and there is still a certain pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The Fed's interest - rate cut overseas meets market expectations, and the expectation of domestic policy release has increased. It is expected that the short - term market speculation sentiment still exists, and the iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The third round of price cut in the coking industry is still expected, and some coking plants have started the first round of price increase, with intensified game [4] - The coking profit is average, the daily production has slightly decreased, and the overall coke inventory has increased. The traders' purchasing willingness has recovered due to the rising trading - floor price [4] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coke trading floor has a small premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal mine production has slightly increased. The pre - National - Day restocking sentiment is strong, the spot auction transactions have increased, the transaction price has improved following the trading floor, and the terminal inventory has increased [6] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased month - on - month, the production - end inventory has slightly decreased, the short - term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, but the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low under the background of over - production inspection [6] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coking - coal trading floor has a premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] Silicon Manganese - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The weekly silicon - manganese production has continued to increase to a relatively high level, the silicon - manganese inventory has not increased, and the spot and futures demand is good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore has been boosted following the trading floor. The manganese - ore inventory has increased, but the inventory - building speed is slow [7] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally, and the overall demand is okay [8] - The ferrosilicon supply has recovered to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand is good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has slightly decreased [8] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8]
黑色金属日报-20250922
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-22 11:08