棉系周报：下游表现一般，棉价震荡偏弱-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a trend of weakening oscillations. Internationally, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate, while domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker [8][27]. - In September, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With high expected production in Xinjiang and low enthusiasm among ginning mills for acquisition, large - scale panic buying is not expected. There will be selling hedging pressure on the market as new cotton is listed in large quantities. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the peak season, the improvement is limited, and the boosting effect on the market is also limited [27][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate [8]. - US Cotton Growth: As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the flocculation rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. The growth was accelerating compared to the previous period, and the progress caught up with the five - year average [8]. - US Cotton Sales: As of September 4, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 2.94 tons, a 47% weekly decrease and a 33% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 2.95 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - CFTC Position: As of September 5, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1671 to 20121, a reduction of 40,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - Brazil: According to the September 2024/25 production forecast by CONAB, the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 4.061 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - India: From September 4 - 10, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 66.1mm, 28.3mm higher than the normal level and 17.6mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 - September 10 was 849mm, 107.5mm higher than the normal level [8]. - Global Situation: According to the USDA's August global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Market Outlook: As new cotton enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - Supply Side: The new - season cotton is growing well, maintaining a harvest expectation. As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of September 5, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4156 million tons, a decrease of 131,400 tons (8.49%) from the previous week [27]. - Demand Side: Although it has entered the peak demand season, the downstream demand change is not obvious. As of mid - August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, and the gray fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of September 11, the mainstream spinning mills' operating load was 66.5%, a 0.76% increase from the previous week [27]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Judgment: The HV on the previous day was 10.44697, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR on the previous day was 0.7370, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.7253. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly oscillate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. It is recommended to short at high prices [45]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - Mid - end Situation: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton gray fabric load, yarn inventory days, and gray fabric inventory days are provided, showing the mid - end situation of the cotton industry [52]. - Cotton Inventory: Historical data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are provided [54]. - Spot - Futures Basis: Information on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn, including the basis of different contract months and the basis of US cotton, is provided [57].