鸡蛋周报：节前备货进入尾声，蛋价稳中有落-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to decline and then adjust next week as the pre - festival stocking nears its end, and the old hen price is likely to weaken with limited decline [5]. - Considering the current fundamentals, the egg price may face pressure in the short - term as stocking ends, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Spot Analysis - This week, the average egg price in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.29 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.82 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The national egg price first rose and then fell. Next week, it may decline and then adjust. - The old hen price first rose and then fell. Next week, it is expected to weaken with a limited decline, and the weekly average price may be between 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin [5]. - Supply Analysis - From September 4 - 11, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.48 million, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week. - In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 will be approximately 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10]. - Cost Analysis - As of September 19, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3012 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2555 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.81 yuan/jin for eggs. - As of September 11, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On September 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 3.01 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.96 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. - Demand Analysis - As of September 11, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7303 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. - As of September 11, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. - The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded, with the national average pork wholesale price around 15.58 yuan/kg as of September 18, showing little change from the previous week [16]. - Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the restocking of each link nears its end, the egg spot price has declined. Short - selling at high prices can be considered. - Single - side: Consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - Inventory (Zhuochuang) - Data on the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from 2018 - 2025 is presented, including historical and future estimated data [21]. - Culling Situation - Data on the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 - 2025 is provided [22]. - Cold - Storage Eggs - No specific content is provided. - Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation - Data on the culling age of hens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas are involved, but no specific values are given [26]. - Price Difference and Basis - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts and price differences such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 are presented from 2018 - 2025 [29][30][33].