冠通研究：降价吸单

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the urea market remains loose and has not reversed. Although the market shows oversold signals, it lacks driving forces and is currently bottoming out at a low level. Attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Since the weekend, upstream urea factories have mostly reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. There is still room for price cuts before the National Day holiday. The daily output of urea has recovered to over 190,000 tons, and high production suppresses prices. Near the Double - Festival, downstream has pre - stocking demand, and they buy on dips. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased but the growth rate has slowed, and terminal demand is weak. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume was 307,400 lots (+10,142 lots). Among the top 20 long and short positions, long positions increased by 6,149 lots and short positions increased by 10,783 lots. On September 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, a decrease of 275 from the previous trading day [2] - Spot: Since the weekend, upstream factories have reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and some factories in Hebei quote 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, mainly for export orders [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 40 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply Data: On September 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 200,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.51% [10]