沪铅产业日报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has slightly decreased, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profits, it shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,003 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 100,923 lots, up 4,528 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 72 lots, up 960 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 47,289 tons, down 2,086 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 2,375 tons [2]. - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.72 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. - The average starting rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [2]. - The import volume of lead concentrate is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [2]. - The export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,125.6 points, down 12.42 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [2]. - The output of new energy vehicles is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate; to avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in the US Congress called for an immediate meeting with Trump [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. - The US Chief Justice asked Fed Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [2]. - US senators are seeking to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning the "shadow fleet" [2]. - The European Commission has passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [2]. 3.7 Inventory - Both foreign and domestic lead inventories have decreased, as well as the number of warehouse receipts. Overall, the inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [2].