Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak supply period, and global inventories are gradually accumulating. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a negative impact on prices, considering that international sugar prices have fallen to a low level and most of the negative factors have been realized, the low - price sugar has strong support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [10]. - In the domestic market, the import volume of sugar in China remained high in August, while the inventory of domestic sugar is low and the sales - to - production ratio is high. Affected by the trend of foreign sugar, both foreign and domestic sugar prices are at a low level. With low domestic sugar inventory and a firm basis, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate within a range and rebound in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,455, down 14 (-0.26%); SR01 at 5,452, down 9 (-0.16%); SR05 at 5,432, down 14 (-0.26%). The trading volume of SR09 was 535, a decrease of 52; SR01 was 185,371, a decrease of 40,117; SR05 was 15,434, a decrease of 7,294. The open interest of SR09 increased by 264 to 2,042; SR01 increased by 6,523 to 456,830; SR05 increased by 1,083 to 58,239 [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,900, 5,905, 6,090, 5,800, 6,015, 5,930, and 6,280 respectively, with price drops of -40, -25, -35, -30, 0, -20, and -30. The corresponding basis was 448, 453, 638, 348, 563, 478, and 828 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The SR5 - SR01 spread was -20, down 5; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 23, unchanged; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 3, down 5 [5]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 41.50, the in - quota price was 4,449, the out - of - quota price was 5,666, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 234, the difference from the Rizhao price was 264, and the difference from the futures price was -214. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,407, the out - of - quota price was 5,611, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 289, the difference from the Rizhao price was 319, and the difference from the futures price was -159 [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - Important Information: As of the week ending September 16, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,021,095 contracts, a decrease of 86,473 from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 165,809 contracts, an increase of 1,119 from the previous week; speculative short positions were 316,860 contracts, a decrease of 30,438 from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 151,051 contracts, a decrease of 31,557 from the previous week [7]. - India's sugar exports this year are expected to be less than 800,000 tons, unable to meet the quota of 1 million tons. So far, about 750,000 tons of export contracts have been signed and about 720,000 tons have been actually exported. It is estimated that the total export volume in the 2024 - 2025 season will be about 775,000 tons [7]. - On September 17, 2025, Hulunbuir Angel Shengtong Sugar Industry started production, marking the official start of the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, 5 days later than the same period last year. It is expected to process about 1 million tons of beets. Due to more rain in the fall, the actual start - up time was 10 days later than planned. Currently, the new - sugar prices of white sugar and rock sugar in Inner Mongolia are 5,700 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively. Heifeng Agriculture is expected to start production today, 3 days later than last year. Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai Tianshan Sugar Factory is expected to start production on September 25 to produce rock sugar, and Zhangbei and Qianqi Sugar Factories are expected to start production on September 28 to produce rock sugar and white sugar respectively. If they start as scheduled, the start - up time will be significantly earlier than last year [7][9]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, foreign sugar prices are at a low level and are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar prices are also at a low level, and the downward space is limited. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The part mainly includes multiple charts such as Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratio trends, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, and various sugar price spreads and basis charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][17][21]
银河期货白糖日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-22 11:28