银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. For arbitrage and options, it's advisable to wait and see [9][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Futures: The closing prices of most cotton and yarn contracts decreased. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,610, down 110; the CY09 contract closed at 19,990, down 250. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed, with the trading volume of the CF01 contract increasing by 90,576 and the open interest increasing by 13,028 [3] - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 95; the Cot A price was 78.40 cents/pound, down 0.25. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [3] - Spreads: In cotton and yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was -5, down 20; the 1 - 5 month spread of yarn was -465, down 85. There were also changes in cross - variety and internal - external spreads [3] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of September 20, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 10.964 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The planting areas in some main producing states had different changes. The final area is expected to be around 10.97 - 11 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of about 3% [6] - In 2025, China's cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013 [7] - As of September 16, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -23.31% (a week - on - week increase of 3.73 percentage points) [7] Trading Logic - New cotton is gradually entering the acquisition period, and the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase more than expected, and the acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries is average. It is expected that there will be no large - scale rush to purchase. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand in September has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season is expected to be average [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of the pure cotton yarn market remained stable over the weekend, with general shipment and weak peak - season characteristics, mainly short - term orders. The cash flow of pure cotton spinning enterprises has improved, but inland spinning enterprises are still slightly in the red, so the willingness to increase the operating rate significantly is not high [11] - The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth remained stable with partial weakness. The demand for all - cotton denim was okay, and the order situation this year was better than that of regular cotton cloth. The situation of weaving factories in Shandong was stable, while those in Hubei were under pressure, and some weaving factories reduced the operating rate [11] Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on September 22, 2025, decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC were 12.6%, 11.8%, and 11.9% respectively [13] - Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7625 for positions and 0.7995 for trading volume. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [18][20][25]