Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend. However, due to high inventory and limited demand improvement, if the supply - side production cut is less than expected, the upside space may be restricted [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract行情: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract of the futures variety rose sharply and closed with a positive line. The full - day trading volume was 510,306 lots, and the open interest was 311,097 lots [2] - Variety Price: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 has weakened. The quotation of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 on the day was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis on the day was - 205 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry Information: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous week. After several consecutive weeks of growth, it slowed down for the first time. The weekly output of industrial silicon of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Sichuan was 2,135 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Technical Analysis: From the daily chart, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent shock range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator had a golden cross above the zero axis. However, the current price is close to the pressure level in the range of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - The fundamentals of industrial silicon supply and demand have not changed significantly for the time being, but the cost side supports the price. The market expects the supply side to shrink later. Combined with the strong rally of the market today, the short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend [10]
工业硅期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-09-22 11:49