沪锌期货日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Quotes: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - Variety Prices: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation: - Macro - aspect: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - Supply - side: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - Demand - side: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].