纯碱期货日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]