沪铜周度报告：预防式降息开启，铜价高位震荡-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dot - plot of the Fed's recent FOMC meeting shows significant divergence. Excluding the view of the new governor Milan, the rest expect one more rate cut this year. However, given the current weak employment and stable inflation in the US, there is still a high probability of two more rate cuts this year. Copper prices have corrected due to the short - term exhaustion of positive factors, but the downside is limited. In the future, copper prices will remain strong under the expectation of loose liquidity. After the correction, downstream demand has improved, supporting copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, economic resilience and the pace of rate cuts will continue to drive copper prices upwards. In the short - term, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. The strategy for unilateral trading is high - level oscillation, and for options, it is to sell out - of - the - money put options. Variables include worse - than - expected US economic performance, changes in rate - cut expectations, and weakening demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - Supply - side: - The spot TC of copper concentrate increased from - 41.3 to - 40.8 dollars/ton, a 1.21% increase. The supply of ore remains tight as the Grasberg copper mine is still shut down, and the spot market trading is inactive [7]. - The refined - scrap spread rose from 1734 to 1917 yuan/ton, a 10.55% increase. After the Fed's rate cut and Powell's unexpectedly hawkish remarks, the market's optimistic sentiment cooled, copper prices corrected at high levels, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [7]. - The southern copper anode processing fee remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the continuous losses of recycled copper rod enterprises led some to switch to anode plate production, supporting the processing fee [7]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased from 68% to 71%, a 4.74% increase. The correction of copper prices at high levels increased downstream purchasing willingness, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day, leading to the rise in the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased from 23% to 23.7%, a 2.91% increase. After the policy discussion subsided, most enterprises in Jiangxi and Anhui were still waiting for notices. However, due to the pressure of production targets, some recycled copper rod enterprises resumed production, driving up the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of wire and cable decreased from 68% to 66%, a 2.63% decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream demand, but the correction of copper prices at the end of the week brought in scattered orders, and it is expected that the operating rate will pick up next week [7]. - Inventory: - The available days of copper concentrate port inventory increased from 6.0 to 6.2 days, a 4.59% increase [7]. - The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased from 15.42 to 14.45 million tons, a 6.29% decrease. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises improved demand and led to a slight reduction in social inventory [7]. - The bonded - area inventory increased from 7.27 to 7.68 million tons, a 5.64% increase. The sharp rise in copper prices at the beginning of the week closed the import parity, and weak downstream consumption led to a slowdown in the inflow and outflow of bonded - area inventory. Additionally, some domestic inventory was transferred to BC copper warehouse receipts during the BC copper 2509 contract delivery period [7]. - The total inventory of social and bonded areas decreased from 22.69 to 22.13 million tons, a 2.47% decrease [7]. - The SHFE copper inventory increased from 28.00 to 124.42 million tons, a 344.36% increase [7]. - The LME copper inventory decreased from 15.40 to 14.77 million tons, a 4.09% decrease [7]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased from 310487 to 316774 short tons, a 2.02% increase [7]. - The global total inventory increased from 62.59 to 62.83 million tons, a 0.38% increase [7]. - Profit: - The spot comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 4932 to - 4404 yuan/ton, a 10.71% increase. Although the TC remains low, the high sulfuric acid price has compensated for the profit, reducing the loss [7]. - The long - term contract comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 1570 to - 1072 yuan/ton, a 31.74% increase. With the realization of macro expectations, copper prices declined at high levels, the import window closed, and the import profit turned negative again [7]. - The import profit decreased from 2 to - 261 yuan/ton, a 11052.48% decrease [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit - The report presents multiple price - related data charts, including the SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, the term structure of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid (98% smelting acid), the Shanghai - London ratio, the LME 3 - month closing price, the LME (0 - 3) premium/discount, the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), the spot copper import profit, the feed - processing spot export profit, and the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper under long - term contracts [11][15][18][20]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply and Demand - Supply: - The report provides data on copper concentrate, including the import copper concentrate index TC, the production of Chilean and Peruvian copper concentrates, and the import volume of copper concentrate. It also shows data on recycled copper, such as the refined - scrap spread, the import profit of recycled copper, the southern copper anode processing fee, the operating rate of recycled copper rod production from scrap copper, the import volume of scrap copper, and the import volume of copper anode. In addition, data on electrolytic copper production, import volume, and total supply are presented [26][31][32]. - Demand: - The demand side is divided into multiple segments. For copper rods and cables, data on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, the raw material inventory of copper rod wires, the finished - product inventory ratio of copper rod wires, the operating rate of wire and cable, and the operating rate of enameled wire are provided. For power grids, data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment and power source investment are presented. For copper tubes and air - conditioners, data on the operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material inventory ratio of copper tubes, the finished - product inventory of copper tubes, the production, domestic sales, and export volume of household air - conditioners are shown. For copper strips, data on the operating rate of copper strips, the raw material inventory, and the raw material inventory ratio are presented. For the automotive sector, data on the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided. For the real - estate sector, data on the operating rate of brass rods, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities, and the cumulative and monthly housing completion area are given [33][35][44][46][52][56]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - The report presents data on various copper inventories, including the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the SHFE copper warehouse receipts, the COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, the LME electrolytic copper inventory, the global refined copper inventory, and the LME cancelled warrants and their proportion [61]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Positions - On September 16, the non - commercial net long position of CFTC showed an upward trend recently, with the non - commercial long - position ratio at 31.4%. The net long position of LME investment funds was 38583.07 lots, a weekly increase of 8097.36 lots [70][71].