航空行业更新报告：重视航空超级周期长逻辑，关注公商恢复持续性

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics. If business travel demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in profitability is anticipated by 2026, indicating dual potential for performance and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The Chinese aviation industry has entered a low growth phase in supply, with constraints in airspace slots becoming more pronounced. Airlines are expected to maintain a conservative capital expenditure approach due to low expected returns on new aircraft investments. The "anti-involution" trend is likely to support a low growth trajectory for fleet planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. Demand Side - Aviation consumption in China is still in its early stages, characterized by low frequency and penetration. The demographic dividend from the aviation population has not yet peaked, suggesting a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term demand fluctuations. The summer peak season saw business travel unexpectedly weaken, but profitability is still projected to exceed that of 2019 [4][10]. Q3 and Q4 Outlook - For Q3, despite the unexpected weakness in business travel, profitability is expected to remain above 2019 levels, driven by a recovery in demand post-September events. The report anticipates a record high in business travel demand in September, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4][31]. - In Q4, the report highlights the importance of observing the sustainability of business travel recovery, especially after significant events in October. The optimistic outlook for the National Day holiday suggests strong travel demand, with airlines expected to manage pricing effectively [4][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position in the aviation sector, particularly favoring airlines with high-quality networks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines. The anticipated "super cycle" in aviation is expected to provide significant performance and valuation opportunities in the coming years [4][34].