Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish (★★★): None - Bullish (★★☆): None - Slightly Bullish (★☆☆): Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - Bearish (★★★): None - Bearish (★★☆): None - Slightly Bearish (★☆☆): Pig, Egg [1] - Neutral (White Star): None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].
国投期货农产品日报-20250922
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-22 12:42