国投期货软商品日报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate varies widely. Mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, and domestic peak - season demand is weak, dragging down cotton prices. After the short - term breakdown, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm is fast this year, and the market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. - Apple: The futures price fluctuated. The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples is good, and the price of early - maturing apples is high. However, the supply - side lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term [4]. - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there are typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. - Paper pulp: The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply is relatively loose while the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [7]. - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders is weak. The peak - season demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is small. The short - term price increase momentum is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Spot trading was weak, and new cotton pre - sales were good. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the harvest probability was high, possibly exceeding 700 tons. Mills were cautious about purchases, and peak - season demand was weak, dragging down prices. After the breakdown, wait and see [2]. Sugar - In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, the sales rhythm was fast, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. Apple - The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples was good, and the price of early - maturing apples was high. The supply - side lacked bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. The short - term futures price is expected to decline [4]. 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period, and there were typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. Wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. Paper pulp - The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was average. Wait and see or trade within a range [7]. Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The supply was expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders was weak. The peak - season demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was small. The short - term price increase momentum was insufficient, and it was advisable to wait and see [8].