资金跟踪系列之十二：北上活跃度回升，整体继续净卖出

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]