粕类日报：供应压力好转，盘面阶段性反弹-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of meal products has improved, and the market has staged a rebound. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as import volume and cost support, while the rapeseed meal market is relatively stable. The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center is expected to move downward. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high inventory and weakening demand. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of future supply due to the lack of clear macro guidance [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean market showed a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded due to increased cost support, and the rapeseed meal market was relatively stable. The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop production increased slightly due to the increase in planting area. The South American old - crop market was in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase in production of 15.39 million tons and an increase in crushing volume of 8.21 million tons. The international soybean meal supply pressure was obvious, with an expected increase in crushing volume of 21.536 million tons in major producing areas [3] - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal supply was loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand was weakening, and the supply pressure still existed. As of September 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, the operating rate was 67.76%, the soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, the rapeseed crushing volume was 49,000 tons, and the operating rate was 13.06% [6] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed, but there was no clear macro - guidance. The market was worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, due to China's long - term demand for US soybeans, the price was unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7] Logical Analysis - The market focus will shift back to the fundamentals. The overall soybean production has not changed much, and the support for US soybeans is expected to decline. The Brazilian soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - monthly spreads are expected to be strong [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 long spread - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [9] Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from November 2025 to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit [10]