财达期货｜贵金属周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the short - term realization effect of gold and silver prices has passed, and they are back in a bull market. The logic supporting the medium - and long - term rise in gold prices remains unchanged, and they are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [2][3][6]. - Although Fed Chairman Powell's speech was slightly hawkish, it actually left room for further interest rate cuts. The dot - plot shows a cumulative 75 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. There is a high probability that the interest rate cut process will accelerate next year [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Fed Interest Rate Cut Situation - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the federal funds rate to between 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut since December 2024. The cut occurred when the economy was not in recession but the risk was rising [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the US job market showed signs of weakness, with slower new job creation and a nascent rise in the unemployment rate. However, the current inflation level in the US remains stubborn, and there is still pressure on "core inflation" in the service industry [2]. Market Reaction to Interest Rate Cut - After the interest rate cut was announced, the gold price briefly corrected, a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market performance. But on Friday, the bulls returned, and the prices almost recovered their losses [3]. Reasons for Future Interest Rate Cuts - Trump values the reduction of the US interest burden after interest rate cuts. With $37 trillion in US debt, $9 trillion is foreign debt. Interest rate cuts also reduce manufacturing costs, benefit the real estate industry, and support the US stock market, so Trump will continue to push for interest rate cuts [4]. - There is a high probability that the new Fed Chairman after Powell's departure in May next year will support Trump's interest - rate - cut tendency, accelerating the interest - rate - cut process [3][4]. Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices - In the medium and long term, there is a high certainty that the US federal funds rate will drop to around 3%, and the process of slow interest rate cuts will lead to a gradual rise in gold and silver prices [5]. - After the short - term realization effect, gold and silver prices are regaining their upward momentum and are expected to reach new highs in the future. Silver has greater price elasticity [6].