节前补库叠加需求回暖，螺矿盘面延续反弹走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - Futures: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - Spot: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Demand: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - Futures: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - Spot: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - Demand: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - Inventory: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - Basis: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].