生猪周报：生猪周报供应压力明显增加价格回落继续加深-20250922

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market has significantly increased, and the price decline has deepened. The market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline this week. The supply pressure increased, with increased slaughter from scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply of large - weight pigs was relatively large. The demand was average, with large slaughter volume, increased frozen inventory, and decreased fresh - sales rate. The market is in a loose supply - demand state, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. 2. Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week. For example, in the Northeast, it was 12.38 - 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 12.82 - 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.6 - 0.65 yuan/kg. The overall supply pressure increased, and the pig prices were under great pressure [11]. 3. Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - The slaughter volume of live pigs continued to increase rapidly this week. The slaughter volume of scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all increased. The slaughter weight continued to increase slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs increased significantly. The supply pressure still exists [13]. Consumption Situation - The demand in the pig market continued to be average. The slaughter volume increased, but the frozen inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate decreased significantly. The actual demand lacked obvious incremental performance [13]. 4. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit continued to decline [21]. 5. Prices of Sows and Piglets Piglets - This week, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 259 yuan/head, down 32 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 358 yuan/kg, down 36 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets decreased significantly [26]. Sows - This week, the sow price was 1590 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs decreased, and the enthusiasm for culling increased [26]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August increased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and scale enterprises increasing by 0.02%. According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 0.09% [28].