【粕类周报】供应压力体现粕类回落加深-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply is relatively loose, but the price has already factored in a lot of negative news, so further significant decline is limited, and it is expected to move in a range [3]. - The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, with high soybean arrivals and oil - mill operating rates. The soybean meal inventory will remain high, and the subsequent demand improvement is limited [4]. - The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is high, the demand is average, and the price is under pressure. The subsequent arrivals of rapeseed and granular rapeseed meal will be low, and the market change is limited [4]. - The recommended trading strategies are: for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - International soybean market: The US soybean market has limited fundamental changes. The harvest has started, the yield is expected to be high, but the demand support is limited. The Brazilian soybean price has declined due to increased uncertainties, and the supply is relatively loose. The Argentine market pressure has decreased [3][8][11]. - Domestic soybean meal market: The domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply pressure is significant due to high soybean arrivals and oil - mill operating rates, and the inventory is high. Although the demand is good, the subsequent improvement is limited [4][14]. - Domestic rapeseed meal market: The domestic rapeseed meal price fluctuates widely. The demand is average, and the supply is tight. The inventory is high, and the market change is limited [17]. - Trading strategies: Single - side: stay on the sidelines; Arbitrage: M11 - 1 calendar spread; Options: stay on the sidelines [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Macro lacks guidance, US soybean demand support is limited: The US soybean price has declined after the previous rally. The harvest has started, the yield is expected to be high, but the demand support is limited, and the subsequent rebound space is restricted [6][8]. - Increasing uncertainties, Brazilian soybean price declines: The Brazilian soybean price has dropped. The production forecast has been raised, the supply is loose, and the price is expected to move in a range [9][11]. - High supply pressure, spot prices are under continuous pressure: The domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply pressure is high due to high arrivals and operating rates, and the inventory is high. The subsequent demand improvement is limited [12][14]. - Average demand, rapeseed meal fluctuates more: The domestic rapeseed meal price fluctuates widely. The demand is average, the supply is tight, and the inventory is high [15][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - International market: It includes data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly exports and crushing [20][22]. - Foreign premiums: It shows the FOB premiums of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, and the CNF of rapeseed [24]. - Macro: Exchange rates and international shipping: It presents data on exchange rates (USD/CNH, USD/BRL, UDS/ARS) and shipping costs (Panamax freight rates for different routes) [26][34]. - Supply: It includes data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing [36]. - Demand: It shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [38]. - Inventory: It includes data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [41].